Forecast indicator

Replenishment date: 29.08.2014
Content: forecast.ex4 (34.72 KB)
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Description
Probably from childhood you have heard that only the current who works well lives well. But all the time of his existence, man has been trying to facilitate his activities by inventing various tools and devices, designing and creating robots. The goal of our project is to make your life easier. We develop and offer our customers tools and robots for working in financial markets.
We present to your attention the Forecast trend indicator. The indicator is designed to determine entry and exit points, and can be used both independently and in combination with other means of technical analysis.

To operate the indicator, 4 parameters are set:
- BarSearch - determines the number of candles in history for analysis;
- Forecast - sets the forecasting range in candles;
- Depth - sets the depth of analysis;
- Lag - defines the delay in candles before the indicator is recalculated.

Let's take a closer look at the work of the indicator.

The indicator starts with determining the trend of the currency pair movement. Using the BarSearch parameter, the indicator analyzes the specified number of candles, determines the regression line and plots the regression line and channel in the chart window.

Then, by analyzing the deviations of the candlestick closing prices from the regression line, the indicator calculates a formula for the similarity of the movement of a currency pair using a polynomial with the degree of investment specified by the Depth parameter. When setting a value for the Depth parameter, consider:
- too small a value of this parameter will lead to a function with a large deviation from the actual price, which will give a large error;
- too large a value of this parameter will lead to a higher load on the PC for calculating the indicator and, as a consequence, to its longer calculation. Other aspects of the high value of this parameter is that a more accurate similarity of the movement of a currency pair will lead to the function repeating various "noises" caused by the influence of external factors on the market.

Further, based on the calculated polynomial, a line of the calculated movement of the currency pair in history is built, which continues by the predicted number of candles, specified by the Forecast parameter. The channel of the average deviation of the actual candle closings from the calculated line is also built.

Using the Lag parameter (delay before the indicator recalculation) gives the trader the opportunity to assess the accuracy of the calculated forecast of the movement of a currency pair by imposing actual candles on the theoretical line.

Changing all parameters of the indicator is possible in a wide range and is not limited by the program. The limitations here should be the capabilities of the hardware used and the common sense of the trader. It should be noted that the BarSearch parameter should not exceed the number of candles in the MetaTrader 4 history, and a too high Forecast value will lead to a decrease in the forecasting accuracy.

Examples of indicator trading are shown in the figures.
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